Judge V. Raleigh: Breaking down the intensely contested 2025 MVP Race
Photo courtesy of Keith Alison/Flickr
In a season headlined by Cal Raleigh’s record-breaking power and Aaron Judge’s all-around dominance, the 2025 AL MVP race is shaping up as one of the tightest, and most fascinating, battles of the modern era.
After the conclusion of the 2017 Major League Baseball (MLB) Season, Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve was named American League Most Valuable Player (MVP). The player who finished second in voting, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, was just finishing a spectacular rookie season. Flash forward to the 2025 MLB season and Judge is now in a similarly tight race for MVP. This time, his competitor is Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, affectionately nicknamed “Big Dumper.”
Hilarious nicknames aside, Raleigh’s numbers are no laughing matter for a catcher. Fans are fiercely debating this race. Here at The Lamron, we aim to settle the division and analyze every angle to bring a rightful conclusion to perhaps the most disputed MVP race of the 21st century.
The logical first step in assessing the MVP winner is to look at the cold, hard stats, because we know “numbers don’t lie.” Starting with the Mariner’s superstar, Raleigh has hit 58 home runs and 121 RBIs, with a prolific slash line of .247/.360/.949. These astonishing power numbers have broken multiple MLB records. Raleigh holds records for most home runs by a catcher, switch-hitter, and Seattle Mariner in a single season.
The one record Raleigh still chases is the American League home run mark, set by Judge in 2022. As of September 22, Raleigh has 58 home runs and about six games to either tie or surpass Judge’s 62 from three seasons ago. It will be tough, but no record seems out of reach for Cal Raleigh now.
After ogling Cal Raleigh’s stats and records shattered, some might question how someone could match a season as transcendent as Seattle’s catcher. Enter Aaron Judge, who is in the middle of one of the greatest stretches we have ever seen from a hitter in the professional ranks. In the past four seasons, the towering outfielder has averaged 51.5 home runs per season. He is approaching that mark this season with a total of 49 home runs and 105 RBIs.
On top of his home run prowess, Judge currently leads the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and walks. He also recently passed legendary Yankee Joe DiMaggio on the Yankees’ all-time home run list with his 362nd career dinger. While Judge and Raleigh have both shattered records, it is clear that the statistical advantage lies with Judge. However, we are going to have to dive deeper to paint the full scope of each player's game.
Now that we have delved into the stats, an aspect that we have yet to fully address is the importance of Cal Raleigh’s position as a catcher. Every baseball fan knows that catcher is indisputably the most physically and mentally demanding position on the diamond. Their laundry list of responsibilities includes pitch framing, suggesting pitches to throw, blocking wild pitches, and, on top of all that, they have to worry about hitting.
That is what makes Cal Raleigh’s season such an anomaly, as he was able to balance all these duties and excel in every aspect. It is also something you have to mention when looking at Raleigh’s season and measuring his full value.
The stats have been addressed, Raleigh’s positional value has been mentioned, and now for the tiebreaker. When discussing the MVP, one of the biggest deciding factors is which player is more valuable to their respective team. There is no better stat to measure that than the WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which measures a player’s overall contribution to their team’s success. Two websites, Fangraphs and Baseball References, produce their own calculation of the stat (fWAR & bWAR).
Currently, Judge has a 9.0 fWAR, and a 9.2 bWAR Raleigh, on the other hand, has an 8.8 fWAR and a 6.9 bWAR. According to this popular statistic, Aaron Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than Raleigh is to the Mariners. While WAR is not always “the end-all be-all” of baseball stats, it could be the deciding factor in who takes home the illustrious title. After looking at a variety of statistics and perspectives, I believe that Aaron Judge should take home his third MVP trophy this season. It is hard to ignore the fact that Judge has an On-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) that is 174 points better, even with Raleigh's exceptional defense and power hitting.
Even so, instead of engaging in heated debates, baseball fans should step back and appreciate what we are witnessing: two generational sluggers who are putting together some of the most memorable seasons in the history of the sport.